Weekly Update 2017-10-28


Pending order : DRNA

Weekly Review

Last week activities :

Managing Position

My account goes down despite the market hitting new highs. As my portfolio contain biotech and Chinese stocks, last week is clearly not a good week for them. It's a good week for the Fang stocks, unfortunately, I don't have it and I also don't have a plan for buying it.
Same as last week plan, I am not going to aggressive on the market. Managing my current position is more important than taking a new position right now.


On last week update, I've said that I consider exiting manually if price breakdown and closed below the low of the tight channel (9.25), unfortunately, the price down and hit my trailing stop first (at 8.8) when I'm on holiday. I took a loss about -0.6R here. Move to few days after, the price action on MITK not getting any better.

1211 or BYDDY

3 weeks ago, 1211 reverse just a little below overhead resistance. Usually, I would exit partially if weekly trailing stop rule get hit and price already achieved at least 75% my profit target. But for this chart, I decided to not activate the weekly trailing stop and try to ride the trend. I still believe it's only bull leg and not a true reversal. There is a huge risk that action can make my open profit disappear. But for now, I'm willing to take that risk.


Earnings season is always interesting, It seems that everything I do on earnings is always wrong. Look at GRUB, where I threw out the plan to buy because of near earnings, turns out it had a good move on earnings. Or FSLR? It also had a good move on earnings after I've been shaken out on failed flag breakout. Now look at INVA, the stock that I held through the earnings, It had a big down move before earnings and failed to rebound. Seems like a market always have multiple ways to hit me right?
Of course not, the market doesn't care about me, it's just a game of probability. If you have large enough samples on earnings based trades (without using another consideration as buying factor), I believe win and loss rate probability will be around 50-50.
Now INVA is on the support of diagonal trendline and I have my trailing stop in place.


NYT will announce earnings on 11/2. I am activating MA-10 week trailing stop rule by moving the trailing stop to below the low of last week candle.

Current Risk Position

That's all for this week, have a good week and thanks for reading.

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